Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312312
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southern Mexico. An area of low
pressure is expected to form from this system within the next day or
two, and it will likely become a tropical depression around the
middle of the week. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph off the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
Interests in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP1/EP112025)
...KIKO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Aug 31 the center of Kiko was located near 14.4, -124.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025262 WTPZ31 KNHC 312033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 ...KIKO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 124.0W ABOUT 1090 MI...1760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 124.0 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025000 WTPZ21 KNHC 312033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.0W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.0W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 124.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025000 WTPZ41 KNHC 312033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 Kiko has changed little in organization during the past few hours, with a broad curved convective band wrapping around the western side of the cyclone. Recent ASCAT overpasses did not show tropical-storm force winds. However, there may be sampling issues at work since the central core of Kiko is small. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt in deference to the scatterometer data. The scatterometer data and conventional imagery suggest the circulation center is elongated east-west with multiple cloud swirls present. The initial motion remains 270/8 kt. Kiko is on the south side of a deep-layer ridge that covers the tropical Pacific between 120W-155W, and this feature is expected to persist for the next several days. This should cause Kiko to move westward or just south of westward through the forecast period. While the track guidance generally agrees on the direction of motion, there is a considerable spread in forward speed with the faster UKMET/ECMWF being several hundred miles west of the slower GFS by 120 h. The new forecast track splits this speed difference, and it lies just north of the consensus models. The new forecast is a bit south of and slower than the previous forecast. Kiko is expected to encounter generally light vertical shear while it moves over sea surface temperatures that are around 27C. After 72 h, the cyclone is likely to move into a drier air mass that could inhibit strengthening despite the other favorable conditions. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows 72 h of strengthening followed by little change in strength at 96 and 120 h. There are two uncertainties in this forecast. First, the rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model are notably above their climatological norms, and that combined with Kiko's small core suggests that a period of rapid intensification could occur during the next 72 h. Second, as mentioned earlier any deviation of the track slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the system over cooler waters that would slow or stop strengthening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast, and it lies near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 14.4N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 312033
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 32 6(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 43(71) 7(78) X(78) X(78)
15N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37)
15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 26(77) 1(78)
15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) 1(41)
15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 1(20)
10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 37(66)
15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32)
15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 20:35:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 21:21:28 GMT