Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
273
ABPZ20 KNHC 020522
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
Summary for Hurricane Flossie (EP1/EP062025)
...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 11:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 18.4, -107.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 12a
Issued at 1100 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025367 WTPZ31 KNHC 020553 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1100 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 107.9W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 107.9 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Wednesday morning. Later Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025062 WTPZ21 KNHC 020251 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025132 WTPZ41 KNHC 020252 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 After briefly filling, the ragged eye of Flossie has reappeared on geostationary satellite imagery. An SSMIS microwave satellite image from 0133 UTC showed that the northern eyewall was slightly eroded. Since then, infrared satellite observations have shown continuous deep convective bursts in the northeastern quadrant. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range between 90 to 107 kts. The initial intensity is nudged up to 100 kt based on a blend of these estimates. Flossie has about a 12-24 hour window to strengthen in conducive environmental conditions. Thereafter, global models suggest drier air and moderate vertical wind sheer could beginning disrupting the circulation on Wednesday. These conditions should coincide with the storm crossing the 26 degree isotherm and moving over cooler waters which should hasten weakening. Flossie is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. Flossie should continue moving west-northwestward or northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next few days. As the system becomes more shallow, it should gradually turn westward in the low-level flow. Only minor changes have been made to the latest official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 206
FOPZ11 KNHC 020252
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MAZATLAN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 8 87(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
20N 110W 50 1 68(69) 15(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
20N 110W 64 X 38(38) 14(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 29(32) 7(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 05:54:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 03:22:10 GMT