Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241125
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Vance, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico.
Western Central Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure located near or just west of the
International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston
Atoll, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development while
the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Summary for Hurricane Vance (EP2/EP222026)
...VANCE HOLDING STEADY... As of 3:00 AM CST Sat Oct 24 the center of Vance was located near 12.4, -102.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Vance Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026000 WTPZ32 KNHC 240837 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Vance Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 ...VANCE HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 102.8W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vance. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Vance was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 102.8 West. Vance is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, followed by a gradual weakening trend beginning tonight and continuing through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs
Hurricane Vance Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026000 WTPZ22 KNHC 240837 TCMEP2 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.1N 103.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.3N 103.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.2N 103.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.2N 104.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 65SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.6N 104.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 104.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS
Hurricane Vance Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026000 WTPZ42 KNHC 240838 TCDEP2 Hurricane Vance Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Vance's convective structure has changed little during the past several hours. The eye remains ragged and intermittently obscured by clouds, surrounded by deep convection within the eyewall where cloud-top temperatures are around -75 C. Recent microwave imagery revealed a slight northward tilt of the vortex, reflecting the persistent moderate southerly vertical wind shear. A 0353 UTC Metop-C scatterometer pass helped refine the analyzed wind radii. Subjective Dvorak and objective intensity estimates remain in the 90 to 100 kt range. Given these estimates and the relatively steady satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 95 kt. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 335/6 kt. This general motion should continue through tonight as the subtropical ridge weakens in response to a broad mid- to upper-level trough near the West Coast of the United States. The track guidance remains in good agreement through tonight, but Vance's forward speed is expected to decrease as it enters a region of weak steering currents. Considerable cross-track spread develops among the guidance solutions beginning around 36 h, partly due to differences in how well Vance maintains its vertical structure as increasing shear and cooler waters affect the cyclone. A weaker system could be steered more west-northwestward, while a stronger hurricane would be more likely to continue northward. Given the substantial spread, even between the HCCA and GDMI aids after day 3, track forecast confidence remains quite low as Vance approaches the vicinity of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico next week. The NHC track forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous prediction, lying near the HCCA and GDMI aids through day 3 and representing an average of these two solutions thereafter. Vance's intensity appears to have leveled off during the past several hours after the hurricane underwent a period of rapid intensification on Friday. Although some fluctuations in strength remain possible today, cooler sea surface temperatures associated with the wakes of recent tropical cyclones have reduced the ocean heat content along portions of Vance's forecast track. These cooler waters, combined with increasing vertical wind shear, should induce a weakening trend beginning tonight and continuing through Sunday. The aforementioned differences in the track guidance have also contributed to considerable spread among the intensity solutions, with the possibility of more substantial weakening than currently forecast. Vance could move beyond the cooler waters by 48 h, allowing for a brief period of restrengthening by 60 h. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and possible land interaction should lead to another weakening trend late in the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous prediction and lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope through much of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 12.4N 102.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 13.1N 103.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 14.3N 103.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 15.2N 103.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 16.2N 104.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 16.6N 104.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 17.5N 104.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 18.5N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs
Hurricane Vance Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026 000
FOPZ12 KNHC 240837
PWSEP2
HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4)
15N 105W 34 X 26(26) 15(41) 2(43) 5(48) 1(49) X(49)
15N 105W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 4(16)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 19(25) 13(38) 6(44)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 10(23) 6(29) 3(32)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 2(18)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS
Hurricane Vance Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026 09:22:47 GMT