Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 2214

MD 2214 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI/LOWER MI

Mesoscale Discussion 2214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Central/southern WI/lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031252Z - 031415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible through
the morning.

DISCUSSION...Scattered elevated storms are ongoing this morning from
southern MN into WI and lower MI. Moderate buoyancy is in place
across this corridor, with MUCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg noted in recent
mesoanalyses and observed 12Z soundings from MPX and DTX. Effective
shear of 30-40 kt is sufficient for organized storms, though much of
the convection has generally been disorganized thus far.  

Across lower MI, a discrete cell has recently intensified southeast
of Grand Rapids, with other developing storms noted to the north.
While longevity of these storms remains uncertain, there will be
some potential for this convection to spread eastward through the
morning, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging wind. 

Farther west, short-term CAM guidance suggests convection from
southeast MN into WI may eventually evolve into a loosely organized
cluster, which could result in localized damaging-wind potential.
Low-level stability may limit the short-term magnitude of the
threat, but filtered diurnal heating may allow for some
intensification with time. 

While most guidance suggests the threat will remain mostly isolated
through the morning, trends will be monitored for an uptick in storm
organization and potential watch issuance.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44899286 45279091 44478648 43988498 43238284 42818247
            42318291 42138353 42288497 42789040 43339112 43889172
            44109209 44449239 44899286 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN