Tropical Storm ALBERTO Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012000 WTNT31 KNHC 210238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...ALBERTO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 80.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast/Advisory Number 6
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012000 WTNT21 KNHC 210237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.1W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.1W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.6N 79.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N 77.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.2N 75.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 35.5N 72.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 80.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012000 WTNT41 KNHC 210238 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ALBERTO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT ON THE JACKSONVILLE DOPPLER RADAR. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND DOPPLER WIND DATA SUGGEST THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO ALBERTO MOVING OVER WARM WATERS ALONG THE GULF STREAM...BUT IN A MODERATE-TO- STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. A PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE STORM LOSES ALL DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO. ALBERTO HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING 180/4. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A PECULIAR PLACE WITHIN THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ALBERTO MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 30.5N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 30.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 31.5N 77.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 33.2N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 35.5N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 39.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012
000
FONT11 KNHC 210238
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 6 8 10 17 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 39 39 38 37 39 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 59 53 52 49 39 NA NA
HURRICANE 1 2 2 4 5 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 3 4 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm ALBERTO Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:39:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 03:04:44 GMT
Hurricane Local Statement for Charleston, SC
Issued at 956 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
Hurricane Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL
Issued at 609 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
Cyclone Information by XML (protoype)
Issued at Mon, 21 May 2012 02:37:35 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191556
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI